If the USA had not already set a precedent that nations can force down an aircraft despite the aircraft containing a nation’s elected leader…as the US did with the Ecuadorian plane containing the Bolivian President in 2013 when they suspected Edward Snowden was on board…I’d say you would be exactly correct.
REF: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evo_Morales_grounding_incident
As things stand now, nations can simply shut their airspace to ICC-wanted individuals…and if the aircraft ignores the warning then they are free to shoot it down. Having an ICC warrant…assuming that the warrants are actually issued after these applications are submitted…doesn’t mean that UN death squads are going to go drag anyone into court and shoot anyone who resists…it simply means that those individuals have to be careful where they are traveling. IMO the warrants are more symbolic condemnation than anything else.
