Just a quick comment. Prior to the start of the current war I warned about Erdogan. You can see by how he is now threatening to invade Israel i I wasn’t off. It may have seemed I was just saying this because he threatens Greece but that’s not the only reason. I’ve followed Erdogan for decades. I understand perfectly how this clown thinks. He’s like the guy in the bar that irrationally goes looking for fights to show his friends how tough he is. Its mostly a personality flaw but his neo-Ottoman ideology feeds into it. Like all extreme nationalists (also see Saddam with make Iraq great again), Erdogan, and the segment in Turkish electorate the supports neo-Ottomanism, are trying to prove Turks are “victims” of the west. And that they are superpower rather than just focusing on trade.;
As for his current threat, I don’t think he will follow though. It’s probably mostly for internal consumption like he often does with Greece but with a caveat. If he’s working a deal behind the scenes for support from Russia, or he’s already developed nukes which I have zero doubts he’s been secretly busy squirreling away on, he might.
And even if Erdogan doesn’t have nukes yet, there is a real chance in the future either he, or whatever neo-Ottoman leader replaces him, will play nuclear brinkmanship. Turkey’s economy is far bigger and more advanced than Iran and will present a far bigger threat to Israel than Iran in the years to come .(and of course Greece)
I am not a fan of Netanyahu. Although he’s right to go after Hamas it should not have come at the cost of so many kids in Gaza. He’s not very democratic by going after Israel’s check of judicial system and having Kahanists like Gvir as ministers.. He’s also needlessly opposed compromising over a micro-Palestinian state that would pose no military threat to Israel. If he compromised with Palestinians next stop would be a unified political front to create a two-state solution for Kurds. That would basically end neo-Ottoman threat in the region and lower the threat from Iran too. If Turkey gets nukes first, eventual nuclear war is not out of question in the years to come.