As NATO leaders continue to applaud Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for his last minute U-turn greenlighting Sweden’s NATO membership during their ongoing summit in Vilnius, the Turkish strongman’s chief advisor warned that Turkey’s parliament was unlikely to ratify the Nordic nation’s accession before going into recess next week until Oct. 1.
Ali Cagatay Kilic told Nikkei Asia on Wednesday, “It’s not like you push a button and the next day everything happens, so I don’t see it happening this week.” His comments are a clear sign that the drama over Sweden’s accession is not over and that Turkey’s push to overcome Congressional sanctions and acquire F-16 fighter jets from the United States remains the main sticking point, sources familiar with months of backchannel diplomacy aimed at getting Turkey to approve Sweden’s membership told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.
Till Kilic spoke, the deal seemed to be all but done as Erdogan and President Joe Biden met for more than an hour on the sidelines of the summit, oozing bonhomie before the cameras. Hinting at a possible invitation to the White House, Erdogan declared the meeting was “just a warm up session” for further facetime with the US president. An equally effusive Biden told Erdogan, “I want to thank you for your diplomacy and your courage to take that on. And I want to thank you for your leadership.”
Pro-government newspapers in Turkey hailed the meeting as “a new era” in Turkey’s crippled ties with Washington, and Erdogan pledged to get parliament to ratify Sweden’s accession as soon as possible.
Then why did Kilic, who is counted among Erdogan’s most trusted aides, rain on the parade?
Under the one-man regime he painstakingly erected, Erdogan has the authority to extend parliament’s session, he can “push a button” so to speak. Most critically, Bob Mendendez, the New Jersey Democrat who heads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and is the chief opponent of easing military sanctions on Turkey, appeared to be reversing his position as well. On Monday, Menendez said there was a temporary “lull” in Turkey’s “aggression against its neighbors” — he was likely referring to Greece and Kurdish-run northeast Syria — and that he was in talks with the Biden administration about the sale of 40 F-16 fighter jets and 79 modernizations kits for Turkey’s existing fleet.
The answer lies in what he said next. There needed to be a way to “beef up Greece’s security” and obtain “assurances” about “future actions.” Asked how long it might take him to make a decision, he said, “Probably, if there can be one, in the next week.” Turkey wants him to relinquish his hold immediately and until such time, its parliament where Erdogan and his far-right coalition partner hold a majority, is unlikely to ratify Sweden’s membership. “It’s down to who blinks first,” one of the sources briefing Al-Monitor said.
A significant number of Menendez’s constituents are ethnic Greeks and Armenians. Hence, US diplomacy has focused on seeking to reassure Greece which was demanding that Turkey halt its military flights over Greek islands in the Aegean, which Turkey claims are being militarized in violation of international treaties. The broader aim is to reach a comprehensive settlement between the traditional rivals who are at odds over territorial rights in the Aegean and Mediterranean seas that would satisfy security concerns on both sides in a region seen as vital to NATO interests. Turkey is up in arms over the proposed sale of new generation F-35 “stealth” fighters to Greece which was approved by the Senate earlier this year. Turkey, which was part of the F-35 consortium producing the jets, was kicked off after refusing to cancel its purchase of Russian made S400 anti-missile batteries.
Serendipitously, Greece and Turkey are expected to take delivery of their respective planes around the same time, some time after 2027.
Former Republican senator and current US ambassador to Turkey Jeff Flake has played a key role in seeking to sway Menendez, the sources said. Lambasted by Erdogan for meeting with Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the head of Turkey’s main opposition party who ran and lost against Erdogan in presidential elections last month — the Turkish leader said he would no longer meet with him — Flake “has proven more effective than any,” one of the sources noted, saying his years of experience cutting deals on the Hill had helped.
Today’s meeting between Erdogan and Greece’s newly re-elected conservative Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Vilnius offered hope for a breakthrough. Mitsotakis has made repairing ties with its long term enemy Ankara a priority. The talks were held in “a good atmosphere,” the Turkish president’s Directorate of Communications said, adding that the two leaders had agreed that it is “to the benefit of both countries that the positive climate that emerged in bilateral relations in recent months has continuity and consistency.”
Unnamed Greek officials were cited in the Greek press saying there was a “sincere discussion held in a positive atmosphere.” Prior to the meeting Mitsotakis told the media, “We have significant differences. But we can agree on a road map so that we can resolve our most important geopolitical difference, the delimitation of maritime zones, namely exclusive economic zones and the continental shelf in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean.”
