Smotrich has his own constituency and his ministry is doing a decent job. In the next election, he will run with Ben Gvir who is .tanyahu when push comes to shove, and maybe even Lieberman. Other than a personality clash and the previous Lapid fiasco they are Right wing. Gallant, Gallant/Ganz/Lapid have nowhere to go other than to Labour, Meretz, or the Arabs. That will not get them to 61. Cohen is Likud but an unknown quantity.
The generals on the field are restless and demanding action. Netanyahu has just OK’d Rafah. You are looking at 4-6 in Gaza. Hizbullies will not start a fight as their infrastructure and Shia areas in Baalbek and Beirut are east targets to demolish. South Lebanon could be cleared in 3-4 days up to the Litani.
The only spanner in the works is the USA and Biden and weapon supplies. This can be surmounted by increasing Israeli self-reliance and augmentation from International smugglers weapons dealers or even UKRAINE(LOL).
You will not see elections until October 2026
