Negotiations on the next stage of the Gaza ceasefire continue without significant progress at a moment when the truce appears particularly fragile.
The United States, alongside Qatar and Egypt, secured a truce in Gaza that came into effect on October 10 and has mostly halted two years of war between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas.
The United Nations has since endorsed President Donald Trump’s peace plan, yet there has been little progress over issues of reconstruction and post-war governance. AFP explains what could happen next:
– What is the plan? –
The ceasefire was the result of Trump’s pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the war triggered by Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
It remains fragile as both sides accuse each other almost daily of violations.
Trump’s plan has various stages: a truce, the withdrawal of Israeli forces and setting up a new administration for Gaza, and then finally the reconstruction of the territory levelled by Israel’s retaliatory military campaign.
The first phase included:
– a withdrawal of Israeli forces on October 10 to a line that still gave them military control of over half of Gaza.
– the release of all hostages, living or dead, held by Hamas or its allies.
– an increase in humanitarian aid entering Gaza.
Though all living hostages were released on October 13, one hostage body is still in Gaza.
For now, the Israeli government demands that the last hostage’s remains are returned before any talks begin on the second phase via mediating countries: United States, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey.
Egypt will also host a conference on Gaza’s reconstruction that will focus on the territory’s humanitarian needs but no date has yet been set.
A lack of progress is not surprising. Experts point out the previous truce collapsed in March before the second phase had even begun.
– Why is there little progress? –
The process seems to be stuck mainly due to the Trump plan’s grey areas.
“Israel doesn’t really seem to be putting any serious thought into what the post-war phase is supposed to look like,” said Michael Milshtein, a researcher at Tel Aviv University.
The UN Security Council resolution, which endorsed the Trump plan in November, authorises the formation of a “Board of Peace”, a transitional governing body for Gaza — which Trump would theoretically chair.
It also authorises the creation of an international stabilisation force to help secure border areas and demilitarise Gaza — but there is no deadline.
Questions over how the plan would work in practice have generated debate in Israel and among the Palestinians.
Israel wants Hamas to disarm and the group says it is not opposed to handing over part of its arsenal, but only as part of a Palestinian political process.
Some ministers in Netanyahu’s government — one of the most right-wing in Israel’s history — reject the Trump plan.
But Milshtein cautioned against taking “all those dramatic outbursts from government ministers too seriously.”
– What are the political implications? –
Trump is in the driver’s seat.
“Israel has lost room to manoeuvre, has lost leverage,” Milshtein said, noting how different the situation is now compared to two months earlier when Netanyahu still made “maximalist” demands.
“If Trump decides Turkey is a good partner for the international force, then that’s what’s going to happen,” Milshtein said.
Meanwhile, Palestinian movements continue to work under Egypt’s auspices to establish a “technocratic, apolitical committee of competent Palestinians” from Gaza, tasked with running Gaza’s civil service and administration.
“The approved names meet Israel’s requirements: neither Hamas nor Fatah (the movement of Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas),” said Palestinian politics expert Mkhaimar Abusada.
“But at the end of the day, it’s not Israel who’s going to decide on every single thing here, they also have to deal with the Americans.”
– What to expect? –
Maintaining the truce is the priority at this stage.
“We’re only talking about keeping a ceasefire alive here,” said Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group, noting that the overall process had not been completed since some issues still needed to be resolved.
But the Trump administration’s determination “may give grounds for a measure of optimism”, Hiltermann added.
Numerous visits by US officials to Netanyahu in the past two months show there is fierce pressure on Israel to enforce the ceasefire, Abusada said.
“The situation remains very murky, partly because Hamas itself is not straightforward about what it wants,” Abusada added.
